Ethereum Up or Down on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (83%) · Up at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
$3.2K
-$183.3
61.9¢ → 78.5¢
+27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+66 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EA Eager47259 | Upavg 60.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$374.36 | 40% 39-58 (97) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Downavg 47.4¢ | $1.3K | $717.92 | -$616.2 | 66% 56-29 (85) |
TO Tokor | Upavg 55¢ | $198 | $266.4 | +$68.4 | 49% 79-82 (161) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $198.29 | $186.99 | -$11.3 | 44% 398-516 (914) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73¢ | $145.99 | $147.99 | +$2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.9¢ | $52.3 | $39 | -$13.3 | |
MO mo-money | Upavg 73.1¢ | $167.03 | $165.87 | -$1.16 | 43% 405-529 (934) |
BO bosona | Upavg 74¢ | $118.51 | $112.01 | -$6.5 | 50% 3626-3661 (7287) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $61.4 | $59.2 | -$2.2 | 44% 167-215 (382) |
Invested
$1,275.55
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$374.36
Record
40%
39-58 (97)
Invested
$1,334.12
Value
$717.92
PnL
-$616.2
Record
66%
56-29 (85)
Invested
$198
Value
$266.4
PnL
+$68.4
Record
49%
79-82 (161)
Invested
$198.29
Value
$186.99
PnL
-$11.3
Record
44%
398-516 (914)
Both legs:
Invested
$167.03
Value
$165.87
PnL
-$1.16
Record
43%
405-529 (934)
Invested
$118.51
Value
$112.01
PnL
-$6.5
Record
50%
3626-3661 (7287)
Invested
$61.4
Value
$59.2
PnL
-$2.2
Record
44%
167-215 (382)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.