Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12PM ET
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (86%) · Up at 100¢ · $292 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Up
7
Up 86%
$292.43
-$1.67
68.5¢ → 100¢
+46% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 63.4¢ | $110.64 | $139.15 | +$28.5 | 67% 99829-48214 (148043) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $70.89 | $60.72 | -$10.18 | 58% 6757-4993 (11750) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $38.25 | $42.08 | +$3.83 | 55% 2909-2340 (5249) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $30.79 | $32.45 | +$1.66 | 58% 38177-27343 (65520) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $15 | $11.72 | -$3.28 | 78% 311-88 (399) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 30.7¢ | $26.13 | $3.83 | -$22.3 | 51% 8020-7554 (15574) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.5 | +$0.1 | 54% 14517-12356 (26873) |
Invested
$110.64
Value
$139.15
PnL
+$28.5
Record
67%
99829-48214 (148043)
Invested
$70.89
Value
$60.72
PnL
-$10.18
Record
58%
6757-4993 (11750)
Invested
$38.25
Value
$42.08
PnL
+$3.83
Record
55%
2909-2340 (5249)
Invested
$30.79
Value
$32.45
PnL
+$1.66
Record
58%
38177-27343 (65520)
Invested
$15
Value
$11.72
PnL
-$3.28
Record
78%
311-88 (399)
Invested
$26.13
Value
$3.83
PnL
-$22.3
Record
51%
8020-7554 (15574)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
14517-12356 (26873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.