Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11AM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $578 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Up
5
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
$577.59
-$4.22
70.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUp at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 71.3¢ | $336.34 | $356.32 | +$19.99 | 67% 99557-47950 (147507) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Upavg 31.3¢ | $98.5 | $162.25 | +$63.75 | 56% 2854-2282 (5136) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24¢ | $36 | $113.25 | +$77.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.3¢ | $62.5 | $49 | -$13.5 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 40.7¢ | $21.05 | $22.9 | +$1.85 | 51% 7617-7193 (14810) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Upavg 73.3¢ | $43.1 | $17.1 | -$26 | 57% 6711-4969 (11680) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $10.97 | $10.75 | -$0.22 | 62% 43841-26852 (70693) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $8.09 | $8.25 | +$0.17 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
Invested
$336.34
Value
$356.32
PnL
+$19.99
Record
67%
99557-47950 (147507)
Invested
$98.5
Value
$162.25
PnL
+$63.75
Record
56%
2854-2282 (5136)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.05
Value
$22.9
PnL
+$1.85
Record
51%
7617-7193 (14810)
Invested
$43.1
Value
$17.1
PnL
-$26
Record
57%
6711-4969 (11680)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
$10.75
PnL
-$0.22
Record
62%
43841-26852 (70693)
Invested
$8.09
Value
$8.25
PnL
+$0.17
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.