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G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100DownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
2
Down 50%
3 arb excluded
Total Value
$512.37
Combined PnL
-$6.68
Smart Money Signal
Down
1 of 2 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares22
Combined PnL-$10.97
Up1 trader
Total Value$14.29
Total Shares14
Combined PnL+$4.29
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $346.37 | $295 | -$51.37 | 56% 2782-2201 (4983) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.2¢ | $141.07 | — | -$141.07 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.6¢ | $205.3 | $295 | +$89.7 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $153.59 | $139.78 | -$13.81 | 57% 6631-4917 (11548) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $76.69 | — | -$76.69 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55¢ | $76.9 | $139.78 | +$62.88 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 84.9¢ | $89.42 | $63.31 | -$26.11 | 51% 7193-6839 (14032) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.4¢ | $35.7 | — | -$35.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 84.9¢ | $53.72 | $63.31 | +$9.59 | |
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $10.97 | — | -$10.97 | 62% 43672-26664 (70336) |
BE beeemw<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $10 | $14.29 | +$4.29 | 77% 300-88 (388) |
AN
Anon455ARB<$100Invested
$346.37
Value
$295
PnL
-$51.37
Record
56%
2782-2201 (4983)
Both legs:
Down$141.0772.2¢-$141.07
Up$205.369.6¢+$89.7
PE
peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100Invested
$153.59
Value
$139.78
PnL
-$13.81
Record
57%
6631-4917 (11548)
Both legs:
Down$76.6949.8¢-$76.69
Up$76.955¢+$62.88
PL
ply-pm2ARB<$100Invested
$89.42
Value
$63.31
PnL
-$26.11
Record
51%
7193-6839 (14032)
Both legs:
Down$35.744.4¢-$35.7
Up$53.7284.9¢+$9.59
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
—
PnL
-$10.97
Record
62%
43672-26664 (70336)
BE
beeemw<$100Invested
$10
Value
$14.29
PnL
+$4.29
Record
77%
300-88 (388)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa67d998b...ee2f0e
Slug
ethereum-up-or-down-october-29-2026-9am-et