Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 2AM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 100¢ · $411 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 60%
$411.48
$3.52
78.3¢ → 99.8¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $360.58 | $377.56 | +$16.98 | 68% 99015-47342 (146357) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.7¢ | $21.25 | $13.1 | -$8.15 | 57% 6611-4895 (11506) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $15.2 | $10 | -$5.2 | 56% 2774-2191 (4965) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $9.23 | $8.97 | -$0.26 | 51% 7108-6729 (13837) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $1.7 | $1.85 | +$0.15 | 58% 50856-37000 (87856) |
Invested
$360.58
Value
$377.56
PnL
+$16.98
Record
68%
99015-47342 (146357)
Invested
$21.25
Value
$13.1
PnL
-$8.15
Record
57%
6611-4895 (11506)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$10
PnL
-$5.2
Record
56%
2774-2191 (4965)
Invested
$9.23
Value
$8.97
PnL
-$0.26
Record
51%
7108-6729 (13837)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
50856-37000 (87856)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.