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Polkadot-FrogARB<$100UpUpDownDownDownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$435
Combined PnL
-$33.06
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$100
Total Shares100
Combined PnL-$2.8
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares67
Combined PnL-$30.26
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 66.5¢ | $280.92 | $335 | +$54.08 | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.5¢ | $222.83 | $335 | +$112.17 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.9¢ | $58.09 | — | -$58.09 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 77.4¢ | $102.8 | $100 | -$2.8 | 57% 6672-4946 (11618) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $22.56 | — | -$22.56 | — |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 43.3¢ | $7.04 | — | -$7.04 | 51% 7416-7015 (14431) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $0.66 | — | -$0.66 | 56% 2802-2227 (5029) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 37772-27004 (64776) |
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$280.92
Value
$335
PnL
+$54.08
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
Both legs:
Up$222.8366.5¢+$112.17
Down$58.0917.9¢-$58.09
PE
peepeepoopoo24Invested
$102.8
Value
$100
PnL
-$2.8
Record
57%
6672-4946 (11618)
38
38791873984189CTR<$100Invested
$22.56
Value
—
PnL
-$22.56
Record
—
PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100Invested
$7.04
Value
—
PnL
-$7.04
Record
51%
7416-7015 (14431)
AN
Anon455CTR<$100Invested
$0.66
Value
—
PnL
-$0.66
Record
56%
2802-2227 (5029)
0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
37772-27004 (64776)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xdf13314e...8007d7
Slug
ethereum-up-or-down-october-29-2026-10pm-et