Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9PM ET
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 100¢ · $334 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 100%
$334.13
$0.02
80.9¢ → 100¢
+24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 91.4¢ | $195.71 | $189.81 | -$5.9 | 64% 57769-32502 (90271) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $82.25 | $87.94 | +$5.69 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $38.85 | $38.69 | -$0.17 | 57% 6591-4880 (11471) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $13.27 | $13.4 | +$0.13 | 51% 6965-6645 (13610) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.03 | $4.29 | +$0.26 | 55% 49293-39546 (88839) |
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$195.71
Value
$189.81
PnL
-$5.9
Record
64%
57769-32502 (90271)
Invested
$82.25
Value
$87.94
PnL
+$5.69
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$38.85
Value
$38.69
PnL
-$0.17
Record
57%
6591-4880 (11471)
Invested
$13.27
Value
$13.4
PnL
+$0.13
Record
51%
6965-6645 (13610)
Invested
$4.03
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0.26
Record
55%
49293-39546 (88839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.