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UpDown
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100DownUpDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2PM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
3
Up 33%
3 arb excluded
Total Value
$666.1
Combined PnL
-$277.47
Smart Money Signal
Up
1 of 3 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares500
Combined PnL-$292.99
Down2 traders
Total Value$74.52
Total Shares75
Combined PnL+$15.52
Up — 33%Down — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 58.5¢ | $292.99 | — | -$292.99 | 68% 98466-46744 (145210) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Downavg 42.9¢ | $187.01 | $362.23 | +$175.22 | 54% 14298-12090 (26388) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.9¢ | $155.56 | $362.23 | +$206.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.1¢ | $31.45 | — | -$31.45 | |
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 39.8¢ | $123.17 | $166 | +$42.83 | 64% 57360-32136 (89496) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.5¢ | $57.11 | — | -$57.11 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.8¢ | $66.06 | $166 | +$99.94 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 31.1¢ | $63.06 | $63.34 | +$0.29 | 57% 6503-4813 (11316) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.1¢ | $39.12 | — | -$39.12 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.8¢ | $23.93 | $63.34 | +$39.41 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $38 | $60.52 | +$22.52 | 51% 6480-6181 (12661) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $21 | $14 | -$7 | 56% 2573-2024 (4597) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTRInvested
$292.99
Value
—
PnL
-$292.99
Record
68%
98466-46744 (145210)
TM
tmsd-testARB<$100Invested
$187.01
Value
$362.23
PnL
+$175.22
Record
54%
14298-12090 (26388)
Both legs:
Down$155.5642.9¢+$206.67
Up$31.4552.1¢-$31.45
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$123.17
Value
$166
PnL
+$42.83
Record
64%
57360-32136 (89496)
Both legs:
Up$57.1136.5¢-$57.11
Down$66.0639.8¢+$99.94
PE
peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100Invested
$63.06
Value
$63.34
PnL
+$0.29
Record
57%
6503-4813 (11316)
Both legs:
Up$39.1231.1¢-$39.12
Down$23.9337.8¢+$39.41
PL
ply-pm2<$100Invested
$38
Value
$60.52
PnL
+$22.52
Record
51%
6480-6181 (12661)
AN
Anon455<$100Invested
$21
Value
$14
PnL
-$7
Record
56%
2573-2024 (4597)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x361db307...c6ed00
Slug
ethereum-up-or-down-october-27-2026-2pm-et