Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2PM ET

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (29%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 9

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$36.07

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,119

Combined PnL-$1.58

Down5 traders

Total Value$182.36

Total Shares792

Combined PnL-$34.5

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 80.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.98	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$501.4	$502.5	+$1.1	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$256.38	$318.75	+$62.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$183.75	-$61.25
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$312.5	+$62.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$187.5	-$62.5
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 23.2¢	$116.02	$109.3	-$6.72	—
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 10.8¢	$69.54	$43.31	-$21.54	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 92.5¢	$52.1	$40.54	-$11.56	—
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$11	$13.75	+$2.75	—
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$22.05	$12.25	-$9.8	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$6	$3.75	+$0.81	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,070.46

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.98

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$501.4

Value

$502.5

PnL

+$1.1

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$256.3850.3¢+$62.35

Up$24550¢-$61.25

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$116.02

Value

$109.3

PnL

-$6.72

Record

—

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$69.54

Value

$43.31

PnL

-$21.54

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$52.1

Value

$40.54

PnL

-$11.56

Record

—

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11

Value

$13.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

—

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.05

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$9.8

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.81

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.