Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7AM ET

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 99¢ · $872 held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$872.27

Combined PnL

$156.37

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 99.3¢

+67% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$837.11

Total Shares853

Combined PnL+$237.3

Down5 traders

Total Value$35.17

Total Shares279

Combined PnL-$80.93

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.2¢	$505.82	$500	+$0.2	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 67.7¢	$108.52	$144.16	+$35.64	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 77.2¢	$104.62	$110.12	+$5.5	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$93.74	$81.5	-$12.24	49% 923-952 (1875)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$97.94	$30.3	-$67.64	50% 940-932 (1872)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$10.23	$3.28	-$6.95	60% 4136-2815 (6951)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 50.1¢	$234.84	$1.33	+$208.19	45% 84-104 (188)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$0.99	$0.93	-$0.06	52% 1628-1527 (3155)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 2.6¢	$0.4	$0.39	-$0.01	50% 1714-1745 (3459)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 19.2¢	$6.54	$0.27	-$6.27	46% 3204-3750 (6954)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$505.82

Value

$500

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$108.52

Value

$144.16

PnL

+$35.64

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$104.62

Value

$110.12

PnL

+$5.5

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$93.74

Value

$81.5

PnL

-$12.24

Record

49%

923-952 (1875)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$97.94

Value

$30.3

PnL

-$67.64

Record

50%

940-932 (1872)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.23

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$6.95

Record

60%

4136-2815 (6951)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$234.84

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$208.19

Record

45%

84-104 (188)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

1628-1527 (3155)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

1714-1745 (3459)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.54

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$6.27

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.