Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6PM ET

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (40%) · Up at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16

Up97¢Down3¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$50.64

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 96.5¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up97%

Down4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$374.57

Total Shares369

Combined PnL-$47.13

Down6 traders

Total Value$55.76

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$3.5

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$530.64	$497.89	+$7.11	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$244.97	$314.33	+$71.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$252.29	$183.57	-$64.72
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 68.8¢	$272.56	$238.73	-$33.82	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 48.8¢	$121.91	$97.05	-$24.85	48% 971-1037 (2008)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$80.12	$64.91	-$15.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.6¢	$41.78	$32.14	-$9.64
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 81.3¢	$236.29	$70.8	-$14.81	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 54.1¢	$67.25	$50.49	+$5.8	60% 4369-2959 (7328)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$47.37	$14.55	-$4.3	54% 2814-2386 (5200)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$11.67	$12	+$0.33	51% 4994-4725 (9719)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 77¢	$12.24	$12	-$0.24	52% 1730-1622 (3352)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 37.5¢	$7.2	$11.68	+$4.48	50% 1805-1831 (3636)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$11.78	$11.01	-$0.77	47% 233-258 (491)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$9.17	$8.65	-$0.52	50% 1016-1007 (2023)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 60¢	$7.2	$0.42	-$6.78	52% 1741-1612 (3353)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$530.64

Value

$497.89

PnL

+$7.11

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

Both legs:

Up$244.9749.5¢+$71.82

Down$252.2950.2¢-$64.72

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$272.56

Value

$238.73

PnL

-$33.82

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$121.91

Value

$97.05

PnL

-$24.85

Record

48%

971-1037 (2008)

Both legs:

Down$80.1248.8¢-$15.21

Up$41.7878.6¢-$9.64

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$236.29

Value

$70.8

PnL

-$14.81

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$67.25

Value

$50.49

PnL

+$5.8

Record

60%

4369-2959 (7328)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$47.37

Value

$14.55

PnL

-$4.3

Record

54%

2814-2386 (5200)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.67

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.33

Record

51%

4994-4725 (9719)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.24

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.24

Record

52%

1730-1622 (3352)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.2

Value

$11.68

PnL

+$4.48

Record

50%

1805-1831 (3636)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.78

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$0.77

Record

47%

233-258 (491)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.17

Value

$8.65

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

1016-1007 (2023)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.2

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$6.78

Record

52%

1741-1612 (3353)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.