Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5PM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (70%) · Up at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Up99¢Down1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$102.39

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 98.6¢

+56% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,381

Combined PnL+$158.26

Down3 traders

Total Value$15.34

Total Shares559

Combined PnL-$260.65

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 65.4¢	$413.75	$523.84	+$110.09	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.4¢	$507.61	$500.29	+$4.97	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 83.4¢	$184.55	$139.04	+$5.1	51% 2628-2476 (5104)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 68.7¢	$100.8	$135.45	+$34.65	49% 966-1024 (1990)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$50.83	$54.9	+$4.06	60% 4351-2951 (7302)
BE beeemw<$100	Upavg 72¢	$15	$14.9	-$0.1	— 11-6 (17)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 55.2¢	$260.52	$8.97	-$251.55	46% 97-113 (210)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 77.4¢	$15.41	$6.65	-$0.52	54% 2796-2370 (5166)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$3.68	$3.61	-$0.07	50% 1010-1000 (2010)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 14.7¢	$11.79	$2.76	-$9.03	47% 233-258 (491)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$413.75

Value

$523.84

PnL

+$110.09

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$507.61

Value

$500.29

PnL

+$4.97

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$184.55

Value

$139.04

PnL

+$5.1

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$100.8

Value

$135.45

PnL

+$34.65

Record

49%

966-1024 (1990)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$50.83

Value

$54.9

PnL

+$4.06

Record

60%

4351-2951 (7302)

beeemw<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

11-6 (17)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$260.52

Value

$8.97

PnL

-$251.55

Record

46%

97-113 (210)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$15.41

Value

$6.65

PnL

-$0.52

Record

54%

2796-2370 (5166)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.68

Value

$3.61

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

1010-1000 (2010)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.79

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$9.03

Record

47%

233-258 (491)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.