Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4AM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Up99¢Down1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$6.16

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 98.5¢

+31% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,338

Combined PnL-$0.46

Down4 traders

Total Value$27.57

Total Shares347

Combined PnL-$5.69

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.9¢	$516.77	$500.29	-$4.21	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 89.8¢	$434.16	$447.34	+$17.57	44% 77-100 (177)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 90¢	$228.13	$228.28	+$0.15	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 92.2¢	$85.41	$89.42	+$4.02	49% 908-934 (1842)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 93.1¢	$137.35	$35.05	-$18.15	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 30.3¢	$18.61	$22.4	+$3.79	60% 4054-2741 (6795)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.9	$5.05	+$0.15	50% 908-909 (1817)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 4.6¢	$11.7	$3.85	-$7.85	48% 216-233 (449)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 11¢	$2.8	$1.15	-$1.65	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.18	+$0.03	50% 1679-1712 (3391)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$516.77

Value

$500.29

PnL

-$4.21

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$434.16

Value

$447.34

PnL

+$17.57

Record

44%

77-100 (177)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$228.13

Value

$228.28

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$85.41

Value

$89.42

PnL

+$4.02

Record

49%

908-934 (1842)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$137.35

Value

$35.05

PnL

-$18.15

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.61

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$3.79

Record

60%

4054-2741 (6795)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

908-909 (1817)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.7

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$7.85

Record

48%

216-233 (449)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.8

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$1.65

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

1679-1712 (3391)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.