Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3AM ET

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (90%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 90%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$36.19

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 99.7¢

+35% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,853

Combined PnL-$24.39

Down1 trader

Total Value$1

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$11.8

Up — 90%Down — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 73.3¢	$600.31	$590.75	-$9.56	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.9¢	$538.16	$499.99	-$5.1	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 89.3¢	$546.1	$458.64	+$85.76	44% 77-100 (177)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 93.6¢	$188.54	$145.31	-$43.23	49% 908-934 (1842)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 65.8¢	$54.1	$50.37	+$1.15	60% 4054-2741 (6795)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 99.6¢	$63.71	$47.44	-$16.08	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$12.11	$18.13	+$6.02	48% 216-233 (449)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 99.6¢	$32.35	$16.91	-$15.38	52% 1584-1490 (3074)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 97.8¢	$346.96	$15	-$27.98	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 32.3¢	$22.8	$1	-$11.8	52% 1584-1489 (3073)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$600.31

Value

$590.75

PnL

-$9.56

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$538.16

Value

$499.99

PnL

-$5.1

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$546.1

Value

$458.64

PnL

+$85.76

Record

44%

77-100 (177)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$188.54

Value

$145.31

PnL

-$43.23

Record

49%

908-934 (1842)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$54.1

Value

$50.37

PnL

+$1.15

Record

60%

4054-2741 (6795)

bosona<$100

Invested

$63.71

Value

$47.44

PnL

-$16.08

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$18.13

PnL

+$6.02

Record

48%

216-233 (449)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$32.35

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$15.38

Record

52%

1584-1490 (3074)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$346.96

Value

$15

PnL

-$27.98

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.8

Value

PnL

-$11.8

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.