Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1AM ET

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (44%) · Down at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$122.37

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 97.4¢

+70% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$508.91

Total Shares649

Combined PnL+$95.85

Up5 traders

Total Value$34.53

Total Shares665

Combined PnL-$218.22

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$533.02	$499.76	+$0.44	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$254.12	$350.78	+$102.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$247.43	$148.98	-$102.47
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 70.2¢	$198.91	$240.27	+$41.36	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 47.1¢	$132.26	$140.5	+$8.24	50% 893-886 (1779)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 52.5¢	$66.97	$111.98	+$45.02	49% 896-928 (1824)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 83.4¢	$113.37	$16.15	+$1.24	51% 2355-2225 (4580)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 53.2¢	$251.11	$14.4	-$236.71	44% 74-94 (168)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 12.3¢	$35.53	$7.26	+$18.88	52% 1551-1455 (3006)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 15.2¢	$8.16	$6.71	-$1.45	51% 4792-4578 (9370)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 9.8¢	$17.9	$4.36	+$3.23	51% 1543-1462 (3005)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 26¢	$5.38	$1.8	-$2.17	60% 3969-2697 (6666)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$533.02

Value

$499.76

PnL

+$0.44

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

Both legs:

Down$254.1251.1¢+$102.91

Up$247.4349¢-$102.47

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$198.91

Value

$240.27

PnL

+$41.36

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$132.26

Value

$140.5

PnL

+$8.24

Record

50%

893-886 (1779)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$66.97

Value

$111.98

PnL

+$45.02

Record

49%

896-928 (1824)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$113.37

Value

$16.15

PnL

+$1.24

Record

51%

2355-2225 (4580)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$251.11

Value

$14.4

PnL

-$236.71

Record

44%

74-94 (168)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$35.53

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$18.88

Record

52%

1551-1455 (3006)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$8.16

Value

$6.71

PnL

-$1.45

Record

51%

4792-4578 (9370)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$17.9

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$3.23

Record

51%

1543-1462 (3005)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$2.17

Record

60%

3969-2697 (6666)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.