Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12PM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up4¢Down96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$179.23

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 96.5¢

+70% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up4%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,827

Combined PnL+$313.18

Up1 trader

Total Value$16.17

Total Shares462

Combined PnL-$133.95

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 57.3¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$250.96	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.3¢	$546.33	$504.52	+$3.89	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 54.2¢	$122.74	$169.48	+$46.74	49% 938-977 (1915)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 84.7¢	$240.93	$64.07	+$11.11	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$32.12	$31.14	+$1	60% 4239-2880 (7119)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 32.5¢	$150.12	$16.17	-$133.95	46% 92-106 (198)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 59¢	$14.9	$8.92	-$0.63	54% 2708-2292 (5000)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$6.05	$5.95	-$0.1	49% 1742-1781 (3523)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48¢	$5.05	$5.26	+$0.21	50% 972-964 (1936)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,755.19

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$250.96

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$546.33

Value

$504.52

PnL

+$3.89

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$122.74

Value

$169.48

PnL

+$46.74

Record

49%

938-977 (1915)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$240.93

Value

$64.07

PnL

+$11.11

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$32.12

Value

$31.14

PnL

+$1

Record

60%

4239-2880 (7119)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$150.12

Value

$16.17

PnL

-$133.95

Record

46%

92-106 (198)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$14.9

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$0.63

Record

54%

2708-2292 (5000)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$6.05

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

1742-1781 (3523)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

972-964 (1936)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.