Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9PM ET

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$65.18

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,630

Combined PnL+$80.05

Down3 traders

Total Value$12.24

Total Shares673

Combined PnL-$14.87

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$508.72	$500.81	-$1.05	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 68.5¢	$324.6	$469.49	+$144.89	46% 72-84 (156)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 97.2¢	$415.91	$371.67	-$44.23	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 91.2¢	$59.3	$62.07	+$2.77	51% 4740-4541 (9281)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 88.8¢	$53.3	$54	+$0.7	51% 1487-1429 (2916)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 95.8¢	$55.93	$52.7	-$3.23	49% 886-917 (1803)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 89.5¢	$47.73	$50.93	+$3.2	51% 1492-1421 (2913)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 98¢	$247.09	$30	-$19.5	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 90.7¢	$28.96	$24.15	-$3.51	59% 3865-2632 (6497)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$12.6	$6.3	-$6.3	49% 430-445 (875)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$2.82	$3	+$0.18	50% 852-864 (1716)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$11.69	$2.94	-$8.75	49% 212-223 (435)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$508.72

Value

$500.81

PnL

-$1.05

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$324.6

Value

$469.49

PnL

+$144.89

Record

46%

72-84 (156)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$415.91

Value

$371.67

PnL

-$44.23

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

bosona<$100

Invested

$59.3

Value

$62.07

PnL

+$2.77

Record

51%

4740-4541 (9281)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$53.3

Value

$54

PnL

+$0.7

Record

51%

1487-1429 (2916)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$55.93

Value

$52.7

PnL

-$3.23

Record

49%

886-917 (1803)

almach<$100

Invested

$47.73

Value

$50.93

PnL

+$3.2

Record

51%

1492-1421 (2913)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$247.09

Value

$30

PnL

-$19.5

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$28.96

Value

$24.15

PnL

-$3.51

Record

59%

3865-2632 (6497)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.6

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$6.3

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.82

Value

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

852-864 (1716)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.69

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$8.75

Record

49%

212-223 (435)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.