Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9AM ET

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (82%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$56.97

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 99.7¢

+11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,660

Combined PnL+$93.39

Up2 traders

Total Value$5.4

Total Shares361

Combined PnL-$36.43

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 85.8¢	$652.31	$717.7	+$65.39	50% 3000-2949 (5949)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$506.34	$502.5	+$4.3	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$251.9	$255	+$3.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$249.4	$247.5	+$1.2
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 94.5¢	$447.94	$467.59	+$24.33	46% 56-65 (121)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 89.3¢	$172.03	$169.5	-$2.53	49% 855-884 (1739)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 98.2¢	$236.78	$100.03	-$3.01	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 95.1¢	$97.51	$50	+$4.04	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 96¢	$99.99	$48.26	+$2.25	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
BO bosona	Downavg 95.2¢	$140.94	$48.25	+$6.5	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 88.8¢	$41.4	$37.27	-$4.14	60% 3539-2389 (5928)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 47¢	$8.87	$9.43	+$0.57	50% 747-748 (1495)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 5.8¢	$3.5	$4.5	+$1	48% 1402-1515 (2917)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 12.7¢	$38.33	$0.9	-$37.43	49% 417-427 (844)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$652.31

Value

$717.7

PnL

+$65.39

Record

50%

3000-2949 (5949)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$506.34

Value

$502.5

PnL

+$4.3

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Up$251.949.4¢+$3.1

Down$249.450.4¢+$1.2

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$447.94

Value

$467.59

PnL

+$24.33

Record

46%

56-65 (121)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$172.03

Value

$169.5

PnL

-$2.53

Record

49%

855-884 (1739)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$236.78

Value

$100.03

PnL

-$3.01

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$97.51

Value

$50

PnL

+$4.04

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$99.99

Value

$48.26

PnL

+$2.25

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

bosona

Down

Invested

$140.94

Value

$48.25

PnL

+$6.5

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$41.4

Value

$37.27

PnL

-$4.14

Record

60%

3539-2389 (5928)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$8.87

Value

$9.43

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

747-748 (1495)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

1402-1515 (2917)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$38.33

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$37.43

Record

49%

417-427 (844)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.