Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8PM ET

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$54.06

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 97.5¢

+53% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,480

Combined PnL+$135.65

Up3 traders

Total Value$55.21

Total Shares609

Combined PnL-$189.71

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.6¢	$525.76	$499.95	+$5.3	54% 3731-3151 (6882)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 73.9¢	$360.14	$389.12	+$28.98	51% 3321-3240 (6561)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 68¢	$277.63	$323.83	+$46.21	49% 886-917 (1803)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$78.09	$72.98	+$26.07	51% 4740-4541 (9281)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 95.1¢	$370.9	$70.65	-$22.15	52% 2296-2150 (4446)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$55.31	$52.5	+$30.97	51% 1487-1429 (2916)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 43¢	$19.35	$42.75	+$23.4	50% 852-864 (1716)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 46.4¢	$218.34	$30.62	-$187.73	46% 72-84 (156)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 17.7¢	$87.39	$22.89	+$3.12	51% 1492-1421 (2913)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 78.7¢	$44.67	$19.29	-$7.41	59% 3865-2632 (6497)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$5.87	$10.15	+$4.29	50% 1618-1648 (3266)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$6.8	$1.7	-$5.1	49% 430-445 (875)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$525.76

Value

$499.95

PnL

+$5.3

Record

54%

3731-3151 (6882)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$360.14

Value

$389.12

PnL

+$28.98

Record

51%

3321-3240 (6561)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$277.63

Value

$323.83

PnL

+$46.21

Record

49%

886-917 (1803)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$78.09

Value

$72.98

PnL

+$26.07

Record

51%

4740-4541 (9281)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$370.9

Value

$70.65

PnL

-$22.15

Record

52%

2296-2150 (4446)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$55.31

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$30.97

Record

51%

1487-1429 (2916)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$19.35

Value

$42.75

PnL

+$23.4

Record

50%

852-864 (1716)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$218.34

Value

$30.62

PnL

-$187.73

Record

46%

72-84 (156)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$87.39

Value

$22.89

PnL

+$3.12

Record

51%

1492-1421 (2913)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$44.67

Value

$19.29

PnL

-$7.41

Record

59%

3865-2632 (6497)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$5.87

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$4.29

Record

50%

1618-1648 (3266)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$5.1

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUp 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDown 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Down 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.