Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8AM ET

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (77%) · Down at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up12¢Down88¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$195.44

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 88¢

+55% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up12%

Down88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,533

Combined PnL+$314

Up3 traders

Total Value$124.87

Total Shares441

Combined PnL-$118.56

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 61.2¢	$433.32	$658.34	+$225.01	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.8¢	$528.43	$497.29	+$2.74	54% 3273-2778 (6051)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 61.4¢	$112.09	$150.54	+$38.45	49% 853-882 (1735)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 43.9¢	$208.19	$68.11	-$111.25	45% 54-65 (119)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 47¢	$28.5	$50	+$21.5	50% 1311-1307 (2618)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 47¢	$28.5	$50	+$21.5	49% 1297-1335 (2632)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 17.6¢	$54.42	$49.42	-$5	49% 416-426 (842)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 46¢	$22.8	$40	+$17.2	51% 4567-4423 (8990)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 83.7¢	$128.03	$24.99	-$16	52% 2098-1948 (4046)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$12.2	$15.09	+$2.89	49% 191-195 (386)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$23.36	$7.35	-$2.32	60% 3515-2365 (5880)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48¢	$5.76	$6	+$0.24	50% 740-741 (1481)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 67.8¢	$3.74	$4.2	+$0.46	48% 1394-1507 (2901)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$433.32

Value

$658.34

PnL

+$225.01

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$528.43

Value

$497.29

PnL

+$2.74

Record

54%

3273-2778 (6051)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$112.09

Value

$150.54

PnL

+$38.45

Record

49%

853-882 (1735)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$208.19

Value

$68.11

PnL

-$111.25

Record

45%

54-65 (119)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$28.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$21.5

Record

50%

1311-1307 (2618)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$28.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$21.5

Record

49%

1297-1335 (2632)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$54.42

Value

$49.42

PnL

-$5

Record

49%

416-426 (842)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$22.8

Value

$40

PnL

+$17.2

Record

51%

4567-4423 (8990)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$128.03

Value

$24.99

PnL

-$16

Record

52%

2098-1948 (4046)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.2

Value

$15.09

PnL

+$2.89

Record

49%

191-195 (386)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$23.36

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$2.32

Record

60%

3515-2365 (5880)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$5.76

Value

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

740-741 (1481)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$3.74

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.46

Record

48%

1394-1507 (2901)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.7%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.