Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5PM ET

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (69%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$118.2

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 99.5¢

+52% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,972

Combined PnL+$171.93

Up4 traders

Total Value$182.3

Total Shares782

Combined PnL-$53.73

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 72.8¢	$572.76	$672.67	+$99.9	51% 3214-3142 (6356)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.7¢	$524.83	$494.15	+$3.46	54% 3579-3041 (6620)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 75.4¢	$165.51	$174.28	+$8.77	49% 878-905 (1783)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 29¢	$137.57	$135.09	-$2.48	48% 68-74 (142)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 46.8¢	$112.76	$120.39	+$7.63	50% 823-817 (1640)
MO mo-money	Downavg 83.9¢	$103.41	$116.33	+$12.92	51% 1429-1393 (2822)
BO bosona	Downavg 81¢	$96.31	$101.74	+$14.64	51% 4683-4502 (9185)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 68¢	$73.99	$99.99	+$26	51% 1438-1373 (2811)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$56.97	$55.65	+$3.79	59% 3751-2555 (6306)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 16.1¢	$34.12	$28.65	-$5.47	49% 427-437 (864)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 34.1¢	$230.48	$18.22	-$45.49	52% 2228-2078 (4306)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$12.32	$7.14	-$5.18	48% 204-219 (423)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 2.8¢	$0.63	$0.34	-$0.29	49% 1554-1593 (3147)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$572.76

Value

$672.67

PnL

+$99.9

Record

51%

3214-3142 (6356)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$524.83

Value

$494.15

PnL

+$3.46

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$165.51

Value

$174.28

PnL

+$8.77

Record

49%

878-905 (1783)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$137.57

Value

$135.09

PnL

-$2.48

Record

48%

68-74 (142)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$112.76

Value

$120.39

PnL

+$7.63

Record

50%

823-817 (1640)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$103.41

Value

$116.33

PnL

+$12.92

Record

51%

1429-1393 (2822)

bosona

Down

Invested

$96.31

Value

$101.74

PnL

+$14.64

Record

51%

4683-4502 (9185)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$73.99

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$26

Record

51%

1438-1373 (2811)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$56.97

Value

$55.65

PnL

+$3.79

Record

59%

3751-2555 (6306)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$34.12

Value

$28.65

PnL

-$5.47

Record

49%

427-437 (864)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$230.48

Value

$18.22

PnL

-$45.49

Record

52%

2228-2078 (4306)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.32

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$5.18

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$0.29

Record

49%

1554-1593 (3147)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.