Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4PM ET

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (78%) · Down at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up21¢Down79¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$154.89

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 79¢

+38% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up21%

Down79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,965

Combined PnL-$157.01

Up2 traders

Total Value$224.45

Total Shares539

Combined PnL+$2.11

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 64.1¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$252.19	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$591.06	$500.24	+$10.52	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$248.77	$362.23	+$116.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$250	$138	-$106.08
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$309.09	$283.69	-$25.4	49% 878-901 (1779)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$124.26	$199.11	+$74.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$184.83	$84.58	-$100.26
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 48.7¢	$225.14	$205.56	-$19.58	47% 66-74 (140)
AN Anon455	Downavg 24.5¢	$83.82	$177.53	+$93.71	50% 427-435 (862)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 45.3¢	$101.17	$111.58	+$10.41	50% 817-809 (1626)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$75.86	$55	-$20.86	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
AA aaa221	Downavg 53.8¢	$110.17	$23.76	+$25.88	59% 3720-2542 (6262)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 31.9¢	$153.07	$18.89	+$21.69	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 32.5¢	$22.96	$14.47	-$8.5	49% 1545-1582 (3127)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 79¢	$12.32	$6.86	-$5.46	48% 204-219 (423)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$1,623.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$252.19

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$591.06

Value

$500.24

PnL

+$10.52

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Down$248.7749.8¢+$116.59

Up$25049.8¢-$106.08

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$309.09

Value

$283.69

PnL

-$25.4

Record

49%

878-901 (1779)

Both legs:

Down$124.2647.1¢+$74.86

Up$184.8353.5¢-$100.26

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$225.14

Value

$205.56

PnL

-$19.58

Record

47%

66-74 (140)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$83.82

Value

$177.53

PnL

+$93.71

Record

50%

427-435 (862)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$101.17

Value

$111.58

PnL

+$10.41

Record

50%

817-809 (1626)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$75.86

Value

$55

PnL

-$20.86

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$110.17

Value

$23.76

PnL

+$25.88

Record

59%

3720-2542 (6262)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$153.07

Value

$18.89

PnL

+$21.69

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$22.96

Value

$14.47

PnL

-$8.5

Record

49%

1545-1582 (3127)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.32

Value

$6.86

PnL

-$5.46

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.1%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.