Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3PM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Up12¢Down88¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$38.42

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 88.5¢

+43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up12%

Down89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,269

Combined PnL+$166.03

Up4 traders

Total Value$63.74

Total Shares624

Combined PnL-$127.61

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 72.5¢	$473.69	$623.58	+$149.89	51% 3173-3101 (6274)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.5¢	$510.51	$501.05	+$1.15	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 42.6¢	$45.47	$61.47	+$16	49% 875-899 (1774)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 35.4¢	$167.86	$40.25	-$127.61	47% 65-73 (138)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 75¢	$47.54	$26.57	-$3.47	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$14.55	$15.16	+$0.61	50% 1907-1871 (3778)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 81.3¢	$12.2	$13.73	+$1.53	48% 204-219 (423)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 34¢	$6.38	$7.32	+$0.94	59% 3698-2531 (6229)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 8.4¢	$7.1	$5.95	-$1.15	50% 426-434 (860)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$1.83	$2.38	+$0.55	50% 1405-1380 (2785)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$473.69

Value

$623.58

PnL

+$149.89

Record

51%

3173-3101 (6274)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$510.51

Value

$501.05

PnL

+$1.15

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$45.47

Value

$61.47

PnL

+$16

Record

49%

875-899 (1774)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$167.86

Value

$40.25

PnL

-$127.61

Record

47%

65-73 (138)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$47.54

Value

$26.57

PnL

-$3.47

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

$15.16

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

1907-1871 (3778)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.2

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$1.53

Record

48%

204-219 (423)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$6.38

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$0.94

Record

59%

3698-2531 (6229)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$1.15

Record

50%

426-434 (860)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$1.83

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.55

Record

50%

1405-1380 (2785)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.