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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Down 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$201.02

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares317

Combined PnL+$159.04

Up2 traders

Total Value$79.56

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$41.98

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$277.05	51% 3173-3101 (6274)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$999.65	$1.5K	+$533.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 54¢	$810.7	—	-$810.7
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 52¢	$596.42	$500	+$5.14	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$259.96	$500	+$250.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$244.6	—	-$245.36
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 79.9¢	$189.65	$162.86	-$26.8	49% 875-899 (1774)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.9¢	$130.17	$162.86	+$32.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.5¢	$59.48	—	-$59.48
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 8.9¢	$182.98	—	+$208.1	47% 65-73 (138)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 28.3¢	$34	—	-$34	50% 426-434 (860)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 75.4¢	$478.39	$46.69	+$30.65	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 46.8¢	$37.41	$32.87	+$11.33	59% 3698-2531 (6229)
FI fiankeeCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5	—	-$5	56% 25-20 (45)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$60.37	—	-$10.07	51% 1414-1359 (2773)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,810.35

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$277.05

Record

51%

3173-3101 (6274)

Both legs:

Up$999.6565.2¢+$533.66

Down$810.754¢-$810.7

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$596.42

Value

$500

PnL

+$5.14

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Up$259.9652¢+$250.5

Down$244.649.1¢-$245.36

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$189.65

Value

$162.86

PnL

-$26.8

Record

49%

875-899 (1774)

Both legs:

Up$130.1779.9¢+$32.68

Down$59.4847.5¢-$59.48

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$182.98

Value

—

PnL

+$208.1

Record

47%

65-73 (138)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$34

Value

—

PnL

-$34

Record

50%

426-434 (860)

Invested

$478.39

Value

$46.69

PnL

+$30.65

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

Invested

$37.41

Value

$32.87

PnL

+$11.33

Record

59%

3698-2531 (6229)

fiankeeCTR<$100

Invested

$5

Value

—

PnL

-$5

Record

56%

25-20 (45)

Invested

$60.37

Value

—

PnL

-$10.07

Record

51%

1414-1359 (2773)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x29ddca64...cce086

Slug

ethereum-up-or-down-november-14-2026-2pm-et

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $0

Anon455

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $46.69

aaa221

Up — $32.87

fiankee

Down — $0

almach

Down — $0

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