Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1PM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 95¢ · $775 held · ends Nov 14

Up5¢Down95¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

Total Value

$774.5

Combined PnL

-$18.05

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 95.4¢

+64% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up5%

Down95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$714.85

Total Shares738

Combined PnL+$25.88

Up4 traders

Total Value$59.66

Total Shares509

Combined PnL-$43.93

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 84.6¢	$118.43	$133.69	+$15.26	51% 3103-3041 (6144)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 71¢	$51.95	$62.57	+$10.62	49% 870-892 (1762)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$62.72	$28.77	-$33.45	52% 2174-2029 (4203)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$35.23	$23.58	-$11.65	47% 61-70 (131)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50¢	$18.59	$18.59	+$0	50% 794-790 (1584)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 20.3¢	$4.59	$5.3	+$0.72	49% 422-431 (853)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 15.5¢	$1.55	$2	+$0.45	49% 1497-1559 (3056)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$118.43

Value

$133.69

PnL

+$15.26

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$51.95

Value

$62.57

PnL

+$10.62

Record

49%

870-892 (1762)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$62.72

Value

$28.77

PnL

-$33.45

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$35.23

Value

$23.58

PnL

-$11.65

Record

47%

61-70 (131)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$18.59

Value

$18.59

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

794-790 (1584)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.72

Record

49%

422-431 (853)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

1497-1559 (3056)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.