Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12PM ET

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (44%) · Up at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 44%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$86.66

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 99.3¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up99%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,510

Combined PnL-$80.85

Down5 traders

Total Value$596.01

Total Shares905

Combined PnL-$5.81

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 82.2¢	$739.3	$672.06	-$67.25	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$510.26	$499.26	+$0.12	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 90.5¢	$441.75	$464.72	+$52.4	47% 60-69 (129)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 83.9¢	$263.49	$216.6	-$46.89	49% 865-890 (1755)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 94.6¢	$372	$155	-$19.11	52% 2159-2014 (4173)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$61.92	$64.5	+$2.58	50% 782-781 (1563)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 30.4¢	$18.23	$13.2	-$5.03	59% 3605-2478 (6083)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 14¢	$15.87	$11.92	-$3.95	49% 421-430 (851)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$6.65	$7.13	+$0.47	50% 196-197 (393)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$739.3

Value

$672.06

PnL

-$67.25

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$510.26

Value

$499.26

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$441.75

Value

$464.72

PnL

+$52.4

Record

47%

60-69 (129)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$263.49

Value

$216.6

PnL

-$46.89

Record

49%

865-890 (1755)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$372

Value

$155

PnL

-$19.11

Record

52%

2159-2014 (4173)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$61.92

Value

$64.5

PnL

+$2.58

Record

50%

782-781 (1563)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.23

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$5.03

Record

59%

3605-2478 (6083)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.87

Value

$11.92

PnL

-$3.95

Record

49%

421-430 (851)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.65

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

196-197 (393)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.