Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12AM ET

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (86%) · Up at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Up93¢Down7¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$143.2

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 92.5¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up93%

Down8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$853.72

Total Shares877

Combined PnL+$142.29

Down1 trader

Total Value$4.34

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.91

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$840.29	$599.4	-$214.64	51% 2841-2744 (5585)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.5¢	$380.68	$449.46	+$71.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$436.33	$149.94	-$286.39
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.8¢	$526.61	$499.77	-$1.92	55% 3086-2563 (5649)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 82.6¢	$314.1	$241.65	-$72.45	49% 836-858 (1694)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 85¢	$207.74	$63.6	-$30.04	51% 1963-1859 (3822)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 45.7¢	$58.12	$46.21	+$12.39	60% 3347-2246 (5593)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$3.43	$4.34	+$0.91	50% 689-693 (1382)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 45¢	$1.86	$1.57	-$0.29	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 37.7¢	$178.8	$0.92	+$234.59	42% 42-58 (100)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$840.29

Value

$599.4

PnL

-$214.64

Record

51%

2841-2744 (5585)

Both legs:

Up$380.6866.5¢+$71.75

Down$436.3362.6¢-$286.39

ByteBadger92

Invested

$526.61

Value

$499.77

PnL

-$1.92

Record

55%

3086-2563 (5649)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$314.1

Value

$241.65

PnL

-$72.45

Record

49%

836-858 (1694)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$207.74

Value

$63.6

PnL

-$30.04

Record

51%

1963-1859 (3822)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$58.12

Value

$46.21

PnL

+$12.39

Record

60%

3347-2246 (5593)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.43

Value

$4.34

PnL

+$0.91

Record

50%

689-693 (1382)

suntori<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.29

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$178.8

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$234.59

Record

42%

42-58 (100)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.