Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11AM ET

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$157.38

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 100¢

+62% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,116

Combined PnL+$158.48

Up3 traders

Total Value$13.06

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$1.09

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 52.1¢	$547.47	$495.08	+$3.56	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 63.9¢	$277.47	$402.75	+$125.27	50% 3041-2991 (6032)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 76.9¢	$134.33	$156	+$21.67	49% 861-889 (1750)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 97.8¢	$217.79	$44.85	-$25.5	52% 2153-1992 (4145)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$11.78	$11.47	-$0.31	50% 195-197 (392)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 62.3¢	$11.61	$11.07	+$3.52	59% 3587-2446 (6033)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$80.18	$1	+$29.96	46% 58-69 (127)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 13.5¢	$1.84	$0.96	-$0.89	50% 421-428 (849)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$0.53	$0.64	+$0.11	50% 1342-1353 (2695)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$547.47

Value

$495.08

PnL

+$3.56

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$277.47

Value

$402.75

PnL

+$125.27

Record

50%

3041-2991 (6032)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$134.33

Value

$156

PnL

+$21.67

Record

49%

861-889 (1750)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$217.79

Value

$44.85

PnL

-$25.5

Record

52%

2153-1992 (4145)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.78

Value

$11.47

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

195-197 (392)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$11.61

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$3.52

Record

59%

3587-2446 (6033)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Down

Invested

$80.18

Value

PnL

+$29.96

Record

46%

58-69 (127)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.89

Record

50%

421-428 (849)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

1342-1353 (2695)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.