Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10PM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (70%) · Up at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Up74¢Down26¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$10.91

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 73.5¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up74%

Down27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$412.24

Total Shares508

Combined PnL+$3.4

Down3 traders

Total Value$146.18

Total Shares341

Combined PnL-$14.31

Up — 70%Down — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$511.52	$499.13	+$0.62	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$251.64	$370.8	+$121.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$248.72	$128.33	-$120.86
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 72¢	$162.03	$145.79	-$13.84	49% 888-918 (1806)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 58.1¢	$103.01	$124.71	+$21.71	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$92.62	$99	+$6.38	45% 72-88 (160)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$52.51	$54	+$1.49	50% 864-867 (1731)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 36.8¢	$37.87	$28.78	-$9.09	46% 2978-3516 (6494)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 68.3¢	$23.9	$25.2	+$1.3	51% 1975-1916 (3891)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 85.2¢	$203.17	$25.03	-$3.69	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 72¢	$28.7	$25	-$3.7	51% 1495-1438 (2933)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$46.5	$18.4	-$11.6	51% 4748-4550 (9298)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 70¢	$12.38	$12.51	+$0.13	60% 3891-2648 (6539)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$511.52

Value

$499.13

PnL

+$0.62

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

Both legs:

Up$251.6450.6¢+$121.48

Down$248.7249.4¢-$120.86

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$162.03

Value

$145.79

PnL

-$13.84

Record

49%

888-918 (1806)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$103.01

Value

$124.71

PnL

+$21.71

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$92.62

Value

$99

PnL

+$6.38

Record

45%

72-88 (160)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$52.51

Value

$54

PnL

+$1.49

Record

50%

864-867 (1731)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.87

Value

$28.78

PnL

-$9.09

Record

46%

2978-3516 (6494)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$23.9

Value

$25.2

PnL

+$1.3

Record

51%

1975-1916 (3891)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$203.17

Value

$25.03

PnL

-$3.69

Record

52%

2308-2166 (4474)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$28.7

Value

$25

PnL

-$3.7

Record

51%

1495-1438 (2933)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$46.5

Value

$18.4

PnL

-$11.6

Record

51%

4748-4550 (9298)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$12.38

Value

$12.51

PnL

+$0.13

Record

60%

3891-2648 (6539)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.8%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.