Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (97%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 1PM ET

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 3.5¢ · $763 held · ends Nov 13

Up97¢Down3¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$762.69

Combined PnL

$3.93

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 3.5¢

-90% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Up 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up97%

Down4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$149.23

Total Shares159

Combined PnL+$3.38

Down6 traders

Total Value$114.45

Total Shares323

Combined PnL+$0.54

Up — 25%Down — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$499.02	+$0.02	55% 2727-2200 (4927)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$362.5	+$112.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$248.21	$136.52	-$112.48
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Upavg 88.3¢	$91.33	$88.11	-$3.22	49% 802-821 (1623)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 76.6¢	$55.72	$61.12	+$6.6	51% 1762-1676 (3438)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$47.8	$49.92	+$2.13	49% 1538-1576 (3114)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$36.92	$38.46	+$1.54	51% 624-605 (1229)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$21.85	$11.98	-$9.87	51% 2495-2439 (4934)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 42.3¢	$8.45	$8.3	-$0.15	54% 1878-1606 (3484)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 12.8¢	$9.38	$4.76	+$7.78	45% 29-36 (65)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 30.7¢	$1.9	$1.02	-$0.88	60% 3075-2056 (5131)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$499.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

2727-2200 (4927)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$112.5

Down$248.2150¢-$112.48

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Invested

$91.33

Value

$88.11

PnL

-$3.22

Record

49%

802-821 (1623)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$55.72

Value

$61.12

PnL

+$6.6

Record

51%

1762-1676 (3438)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.8

Value

$49.92

PnL

+$2.13

Record

49%

1538-1576 (3114)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.92

Value

$38.46

PnL

+$1.54

Record

51%

624-605 (1229)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.85

Value

$11.98

PnL

-$9.87

Record

51%

2495-2439 (4934)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.45

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

1878-1606 (3484)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.38

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$7.78

Record

45%

29-36 (65)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.88

Record

60%

3075-2056 (5131)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Up 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.8%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1982.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

2083.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.