Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11PM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$50.72

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 100¢

+56% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,231

Combined PnL-$28.88

Down3 traders

Total Value$115.52

Total Shares401

Combined PnL-$21.84

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 65.7¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$195.47	51% 2812-2714 (5526)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$534.53	$500.01	+$4.6	55% 3034-2491 (5525)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$250.34	$252.51	+$2.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$246.92	$247.5	+$2.1
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 54.1¢	$264.04	$461.76	+$222.82	44% 42-53 (95)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 77.9¢	$233.74	$187.06	-$43.73	49% 827-855 (1682)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 44.4¢	$92.87	$104.5	+$11.63	50% 673-674 (1347)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 47¢	$48.13	$36.14	+$1.58	60% 3298-2213 (5511)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 93.4¢	$270.78	$15.71	-$14.08	51% 1930-1826 (3756)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 23.2¢	$16.49	$10.3	-$6.2	48% 1324-1417 (2741)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 23.1¢	$28	$0.73	-$27.27	46% 2359-2814 (5173)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,727.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$195.47

Record

51%

2812-2714 (5526)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$534.53

Value

$500.01

PnL

+$4.6

Record

55%

3034-2491 (5525)

Both legs:

Down$250.3449.6¢+$2.5

Up$246.9249.9¢+$2.1

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$264.04

Value

$461.76

PnL

+$222.82

Record

44%

42-53 (95)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$233.74

Value

$187.06

PnL

-$43.73

Record

49%

827-855 (1682)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$92.87

Value

$104.5

PnL

+$11.63

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$48.13

Value

$36.14

PnL

+$1.58

Record

60%

3298-2213 (5511)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$270.78

Value

$15.71

PnL

-$14.08

Record

51%

1930-1826 (3756)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.49

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$6.2

Record

48%

1324-1417 (2741)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$27.27

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.