Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (83%). 2 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 9AM ET

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (18%) · Up at 17¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up17¢Down83¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 18%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$125.97

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 17¢

-66% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Down 83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up17%

Down83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$0

Down9 traders

Total Value$748.4

Total Shares904

Combined PnL+$125.97

Up — 18%Down — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$385.06	$516.2	+$131.13	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$273.53	$356.23	+$82.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.4¢	$111.53	$159.97	+$48.44
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
AN Anon455	Downavg 74.2¢	$279.56	$307.23	+$27.67	49% 286-302 (588)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 59.1¢	$102.81	$157.87	+$56.02	49% 600-626 (1226)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 82.3¢	$207.5	$150	-$57.5	48% 784-859 (1643)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$84	$87.75	+$3.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.3¢	$123.5	$62.25	-$61.25
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 72.3¢	$182.27	$120.68	+$23.82	53% 1336-1195 (2531)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 81.5¢	$162.2	$118	-$44.2	47% 787-874 (1661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$66.08	$69.03	+$2.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.5¢	$96.12	$48.97	-$47.15
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 81.8¢	$49.05	$49.5	+$0.45	47% 870-993 (1863)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$33.99	$48.9	+$18.87	60% 2327-1560 (3887)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 48¢	$26.4	$27.5	+$1.1	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 47¢	$16.45	$17.5	+$1.05	47% 1280-1435 (2715)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 82¢	$12.32	$11.94	-$0.38	47% 102-115 (217)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 55.2¢	$19.54	$7.27	-$2.63	54% 1521-1314 (2835)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$385.06

Value

$516.2

PnL

+$131.13

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

Both legs:

Down$273.5357.6¢+$82.69

Up$111.5317.4¢+$48.44

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Anon455

Down

Invested

$279.56

Value

$307.23

PnL

+$27.67

Record

49%

286-302 (588)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$102.81

Value

$157.87

PnL

+$56.02

Record

49%

600-626 (1226)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$207.5

Value

$150

PnL

-$57.5

Record

48%

784-859 (1643)

Both legs:

Up$8456¢+$3.75

Down$123.582.3¢-$61.25

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$182.27

Value

$120.68

PnL

+$23.82

Record

53%

1336-1195 (2531)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$162.2

Value

$118

PnL

-$44.2

Record

47%

787-874 (1661)

Both legs:

Up$66.0856¢+$2.95

Down$96.1281.5¢-$47.15

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$49.05

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

870-993 (1863)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$33.99

Value

$48.9

PnL

+$18.87

Record

60%

2327-1560 (3887)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$26.4

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$1.1

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$16.45

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$1.05

Record

47%

1280-1435 (2715)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$12.32

Value

$11.94

PnL

-$0.38

Record

47%

102-115 (217)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$19.54

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$2.63

Record

54%

1521-1314 (2835)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors Down 83%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.0%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$425.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

525.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.