Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 8PM ET

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (83%) · Up at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Up57¢Down43¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 83%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$92.47

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 57¢

+45% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up57%

Down43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$271.14

Total Shares409

Combined PnL+$93.78

Down1 trader

Total Value$13.92

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$1.31

Up — 83%Down — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$645	+$145	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$395	+$145
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$645	+$145	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$395	+$145
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 53.4¢	$289.57	$254.56	-$35.01	50% 2044-2046 (4090)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.4¢	$147.61	$164.58	+$16.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.9¢	$141.96	$89.98	-$51.98
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 36.5¢	$92.69	$168.91	+$76.22	52% 13-12 (25)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 75.4¢	$204.52	$148.35	-$56.17	49% 699-736 (1435)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.4¢	$115.86	$98.4	-$17.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.9¢	$88.67	$49.95	-$38.71
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 44¢	$41.64	$46.97	+$5.34	50% 500-496 (996)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$50.96	$37.76	+$7.43	52% 1513-1391 (2904)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 42.2¢	$15.23	$13.92	-$1.31	60% 2636-1762 (4398)
AN Anon455<$100	Upavg 35¢	$8.75	$12.5	+$3.75	50% 306-311 (617)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 44¢	$3.95	$5	+$1.05	47% 1014-1146 (2160)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$645

PnL

+$145

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$645

PnL

+$145

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$145

Down$25050¢+$0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$289.57

Value

$254.56

PnL

-$35.01

Record

50%

2044-2046 (4090)

Both legs:

Up$147.6153.4¢+$16.97

Down$141.9663.9¢-$51.98

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$92.69

Value

$168.91

PnL

+$76.22

Record

52%

13-12 (25)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$204.52

Value

$148.35

PnL

-$56.17

Record

49%

699-736 (1435)

Both legs:

Up$115.8675.4¢-$17.46

Down$88.6763.9¢-$38.71

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$41.64

Value

$46.97

PnL

+$5.34

Record

50%

500-496 (996)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$50.96

Value

$37.76

PnL

+$7.43

Record

52%

1513-1391 (2904)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.23

Value

$13.92

PnL

-$1.31

Record

60%

2636-1762 (4398)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$8.75

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$3.75

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

PnL

+$1.05

Record

47%

1014-1146 (2160)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.