Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 8AM ET

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (69%) · Down at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$141.63

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 97¢

+45% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,325

Combined PnL+$254.61

Up4 traders

Total Value$909.13

Total Shares1,108

Combined PnL-$112.98

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Down 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 64¢	$534.61	$709.95	+$175.34	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$445	-$55	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$445	-$55	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 66.1¢	$149.67	$192.42	+$42.75	49% 600-626 (1226)
AN Anon455	Downavg 76.4¢	$179.37	$184.66	+$5.29	49% 286-302 (588)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 58¢	$36.42	$56.92	+$20.5	47% 787-874 (1661)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$28.29	$43.81	+$15.52	48% 784-859 (1643)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 84.7¢	$42.1	$35.53	-$4.01	60% 2327-1560 (3887)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$41.44	$30.49	+$5.25	50% 4018-3992 (8010)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 85.4¢	$405.18	$29.11	-$11.52	53% 1336-1195 (2531)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$23.45	$9.82	-$4.14	47% 102-115 (217)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 12.7¢	$8.15	$9.31	+$1.16	47% 870-993 (1863)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 52.7¢	$12.8	$8.3	+$5.5	54% 1521-1314 (2835)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$534.61

Value

$709.95

PnL

+$175.34

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$445

PnL

-$55

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$445

PnL

-$55

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$149.67

Value

$192.42

PnL

+$42.75

Record

49%

600-626 (1226)

Anon455

Down

Invested

$179.37

Value

$184.66

PnL

+$5.29

Record

49%

286-302 (588)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$36.42

Value

$56.92

PnL

+$20.5

Record

47%

787-874 (1661)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$28.29

Value

$43.81

PnL

+$15.52

Record

48%

784-859 (1643)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$42.1

Value

$35.53

PnL

-$4.01

Record

60%

2327-1560 (3887)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$41.44

Value

$30.49

PnL

+$5.25

Record

50%

4018-3992 (8010)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$405.18

Value

$29.11

PnL

-$11.52

Record

53%

1336-1195 (2531)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$23.45

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$4.14

Record

47%

102-115 (217)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$1.16

Record

47%

870-993 (1863)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$12.8

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$5.5

Record

54%

1521-1314 (2835)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Down 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.