Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (95%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 7PM ET

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (27%) · Up at 5.5¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Up6¢Down94¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 27%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$79.03

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 5.5¢

-89% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Down 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up6%

Down95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,023

Combined PnL+$0.35

Down8 traders

Total Value$541.92

Total Shares588

Combined PnL+$78.68

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 89.7¢	$204.65	$200.28	-$4.37	50% 2029-2035 (4064)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 67.2¢	$137.97	$147.23	+$9.26	48% 677-723 (1400)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$34.5	$48.63	+$14.13	49% 303-310 (613)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 74.3¢	$120.24	$47.03	+$13.7	52% 1478-1365 (2843)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$41.84	$41.02	-$0.82	50% 492-490 (982)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 84¢	$24.2	$27.5	+$3.3	50% 4140-4074 (8214)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 86.6¢	$36.82	$26.23	-$7.77	60% 2584-1729 (4313)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$12.09	$12.44	+$0.35	49% 130-136 (266)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 77.8¢	$171	$4.01	+$51.27	55% 11-9 (20)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$204.65

Value

$200.28

PnL

-$4.37

Record

50%

2029-2035 (4064)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$137.97

Value

$147.23

PnL

+$9.26

Record

48%

677-723 (1400)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$34.5

Value

$48.63

PnL

+$14.13

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$120.24

Value

$47.03

PnL

+$13.7

Record

52%

1478-1365 (2843)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$41.84

Value

$41.02

PnL

-$0.82

Record

50%

492-490 (982)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$24.2

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$3.3

Record

50%

4140-4074 (8214)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$36.82

Value

$26.23

PnL

-$7.77

Record

60%

2584-1729 (4313)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$12.09

Value

$12.44

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

130-136 (266)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$171

Value

$4.01

PnL

+$51.27

Record

55%

11-9 (20)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Down 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.9%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1343.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

1444.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.