Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 7AM ET

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (25%) · Up at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up83¢Down17¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 25%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$5.32

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 82.5¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up83%

Down18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$348.53

Total Shares362

Combined PnL-$80.94

Down9 traders

Total Value$498.16

Total Shares907

Combined PnL+$75.62

Up — 25%Down — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$545	+$45	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$545	+$45	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$250	+$0
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 65.1¢	$404.49	$294.88	-$73.35	50% 1695-1670 (3365)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$258.79	$213.36	-$44.87	49% 590-617 (1207)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$138.12	$156.77	+$18.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$118.06	$56.59	-$63.53
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 45.5¢	$238.9	$194.36	+$53.25	48% 2125-2324 (4449)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$36.25	$73.75	+$37.5	48% 284-302 (586)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$56.74	$68.53	+$11.79	48% 1121-1213 (2334)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$48	$59	+$11	47% 771-869 (1640)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 71.1¢	$303.96	$43.93	-$5.21	53% 1315-1180 (2495)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$49.67	$33.4	-$8.69	60% 2300-1532 (3832)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$24.49	$29.49	+$5	47% 765-855 (1620)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$52.15	$27.5	-$23.3	50% 4000-3988 (7988)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 51¢	$12.09	$9.72	-$2.37	47% 101-114 (215)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$16.5	$9.48	-$7.02	53% 1497-1303 (2800)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$6.55	$2.65	-$3.91	46% 853-986 (1839)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$545

PnL

+$45

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$45

Up$25050¢+$0

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$545

PnL

+$45

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$45

Up$25050¢+$0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$404.49

Value

$294.88

PnL

-$73.35

Record

50%

1695-1670 (3365)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$258.79

Value

$213.36

PnL

-$44.87

Record

49%

590-617 (1207)

Both legs:

Up$138.1266.1¢+$18.65

Down$118.0652.2¢-$63.53

38791873984189CTR

Down

Invested

$238.9

Value

$194.36

PnL

+$53.25

Record

48%

2125-2324 (4449)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.25

Value

$73.75

PnL

+$37.5

Record

48%

284-302 (586)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$56.74

Value

$68.53

PnL

+$11.79

Record

48%

1121-1213 (2334)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$48

Value

$59

PnL

+$11

Record

47%

771-869 (1640)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$303.96

Value

$43.93

PnL

-$5.21

Record

53%

1315-1180 (2495)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.67

Value

$33.4

PnL

-$8.69

Record

60%

2300-1532 (3832)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.49

Value

$29.49

PnL

+$5

Record

47%

765-855 (1620)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$52.15

Value

$27.5

PnL

-$23.3

Record

50%

4000-3988 (7988)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.09

Value

$9.72

PnL

-$2.37

Record

47%

101-114 (215)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.5

Value

$9.48

PnL

-$7.02

Record

53%

1497-1303 (2800)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.55

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$3.91

Record

46%

853-986 (1839)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.5%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.