Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6PM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Up85¢Down15¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$81.42

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 85¢

+47% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up85%

Down15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$532.88

Total Shares598

Combined PnL+$104.17

Down3 traders

Total Value$34.52

Total Shares101

Combined PnL-$22.75

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$710	+$210	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$385	+$135
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$325	+$75
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$710	+$210	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$385	+$135
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$325	+$75
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 51.2¢	$194.1	$339.17	+$145.1	55% 11-9 (20)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 71.8¢	$115.69	$91.75	-$23.94	48% 677-723 (1400)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 66.7¢	$222.67	$68.9	-$16.45	52% 1478-1365 (2843)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 42.8¢	$59.16	$28.86	-$15.76	60% 2584-1729 (4313)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 71¢	$26.83	$17.62	-$3.79	50% 2029-2035 (4064)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 70.6¢	$12.18	$15.44	+$3.25	49% 130-136 (266)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 39.6¢	$32.76	$5.44	-$7	54% 1716-1459 (3175)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 10¢	$0.22	$0.23	+$0.01	47% 995-1129 (2124)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$710

PnL

+$210

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$500

Value

$710

PnL

+$210

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$135

Down$25050¢+$75

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$194.1

Value

$339.17

PnL

+$145.1

Record

55%

11-9 (20)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$115.69

Value

$91.75

PnL

-$23.94

Record

48%

677-723 (1400)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$222.67

Value

$68.9

PnL

-$16.45

Record

52%

1478-1365 (2843)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$59.16

Value

$28.86

PnL

-$15.76

Record

60%

2584-1729 (4313)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$26.83

Value

$17.62

PnL

-$3.79

Record

50%

2029-2035 (4064)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.18

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$3.25

Record

49%

130-136 (266)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.76

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$7

Record

54%

1716-1459 (3175)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

995-1129 (2124)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Up 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.8%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.