Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 6AM ET

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (27%) · Up at 0.4¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 27%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$221.61

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$995.09

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL-$16.88

Down8 traders

Total Value$875.09

Total Shares883

Combined PnL+$238.5

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$497.5	-$2.5	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$497.5	-$2.5	56% 2343-1812 (4155)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 71.5¢	$270.72	$331.58	+$60.86	51% 1663-1626 (3289)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 47.8¢	$103.21	$211.28	+$108.07	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 79.8¢	$173.02	$91.95	+$8.07	53% 1297-1168 (2465)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$57.26	$86.94	+$29.68	49% 586-614 (1200)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 69¢	$60.95	$74.86	+$18.28	60% 2276-1514 (3790)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 98.2¢	$66.35	$49.99	+$1.41	47% 750-851 (1601)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$11.17	$23	+$11.83	53% 1476-1292 (2768)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 93¢	$5.18	$5.49	+$0.3	48% 283-301 (584)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$11.97	$0.09	-$11.88	47% 101-113 (214)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$497.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$497.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

56%

2343-1812 (4155)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$270.72

Value

$331.58

PnL

+$60.86

Record

51%

1663-1626 (3289)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$103.21

Value

$211.28

PnL

+$108.07

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$173.02

Value

$91.95

PnL

+$8.07

Record

53%

1297-1168 (2465)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$57.26

Value

$86.94

PnL

+$29.68

Record

49%

586-614 (1200)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$60.95

Value

$74.86

PnL

+$18.28

Record

60%

2276-1514 (3790)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$66.35

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$1.41

Record

47%

750-851 (1601)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$11.17

Value

$23

PnL

+$11.83

Record

53%

1476-1292 (2768)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

283-301 (584)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.97

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$11.88

Record

47%

101-113 (214)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6351.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

6451.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.