Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (98%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5PM ET

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (36%) · Up at 2.0¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 36%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$49.34

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 2¢

-95% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Down 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,508

Combined PnL-$49.24

Down7 traders

Total Value$555.11

Total Shares561

Combined PnL+$98.58

Up — 36%Down — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$535	+$35	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$535	+$35	56% 2475-1962 (4437)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 73.2¢	$268.22	$336.16	+$67.94	50% 1992-1999 (3991)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 84.4¢	$79.82	$69.89	+$4.66	52% 1462-1348 (2810)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$54.95	$61.6	+$6.65	49% 302-309 (611)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 67.8¢	$28.99	$37.66	+$8.66	48% 665-716 (1381)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 74.6¢	$18.61	$21.96	+$3.35	60% 2556-1710 (4266)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$13.03	$19.04	+$6.01	54% 1694-1445 (3139)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 75¢	$7.51	$8.81	+$1.3	48% 885-942 (1827)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 24.6¢	$114.97	$7.01	-$107.96	— 8-8 (16)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$11.89	$0.62	-$11.27	49% 130-136 (266)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$535

PnL

+$35

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$535

PnL

+$35

Record

56%

2475-1962 (4437)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$268.22

Value

$336.16

PnL

+$67.94

Record

50%

1992-1999 (3991)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$79.82

Value

$69.89

PnL

+$4.66

Record

52%

1462-1348 (2810)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$54.95

Value

$61.6

PnL

+$6.65

Record

49%

302-309 (611)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$28.99

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$8.66

Record

48%

665-716 (1381)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$18.61

Value

$21.96

PnL

+$3.35

Record

60%

2556-1710 (4266)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$13.03

Value

$19.04

PnL

+$6.01

Record

54%

1694-1445 (3139)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$7.51

Value

$8.81

PnL

+$1.3

Record

48%

885-942 (1827)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$114.97

Value

$7.01

PnL

-$107.96

Record

—

8-8 (16)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.89

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$11.27

Record

49%

130-136 (266)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Down 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Down 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.2%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3021.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

3121.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.