Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5AM ET

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (27%) · Up at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up77¢Down23¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$11.55

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 76.5¢

+54% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up77%

Down24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,032

Combined PnL+$16.38

Down8 traders

Total Value$137.48

Total Shares436

Combined PnL-$4.83

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2341-1812 (4153)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 30.9¢	$108.32	$74.45	-$33.87	51% 1641-1598 (3239)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.9¢	$90.88	$51.4	-$39.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.4¢	$17.44	$23.05	+$5.61
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$39.11	$41.6	+$2.5	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Downavg 30.2¢	$43.47	$30.7	-$12.77	49% 570-602 (1172)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$11.94	$28.32	+$16.38	48% 99-109 (208)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 29.7¢	$43.9	$24.22	+$5.32	53% 1264-1138 (2402)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 41.4¢	$16	$13.15	-$2.85	53% 1437-1267 (2704)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$7.5	$8.75	+$1.25	47% 731-834 (1565)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$7.5	$8.75	+$1.25	46% 731-854 (1585)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 16.5¢	$5.59	$5.93	+$0.35	60% 2210-1484 (3694)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 17¢	$4.25	$4.38	+$0.13	48% 279-297 (576)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2341-1812 (4153)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.32

Value

$74.45

PnL

-$33.87

Record

51%

1641-1598 (3239)

Both legs:

Down$90.8830.9¢-$39.48

Up$17.4462.4¢+$5.61

38791873984189CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.11

Value

$41.6

PnL

+$2.5

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.47

Value

$30.7

PnL

-$12.77

Record

49%

570-602 (1172)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$11.94

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$16.38

Record

48%

99-109 (208)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.9

Value

$24.22

PnL

+$5.32

Record

53%

1264-1138 (2402)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16

Value

$13.15

PnL

-$2.85

Record

53%

1437-1267 (2704)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.5

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

47%

731-834 (1565)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.5

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

46%

731-854 (1585)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.59

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$0.35

Record

60%

2210-1484 (3694)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

279-297 (576)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.7%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.