Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4PM ET

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up85¢Down15¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$255.14

Smart Money Entry

63.7¢ → 84.5¢

+33% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up85%

Down16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,001

Combined PnL-$249.14

Down3 traders

Total Value$103.62

Total Shares508

Combined PnL-$6

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 76¢	$723.73	$575.22	-$138.25	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$455	-$45	—
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$455	-$45	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 77.1¢	$120.38	$101.55	-$18.83	48% 661-703 (1364)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 19.2¢	$83.51	$89.4	+$5.89	— 7-6 (13)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 82.4¢	$105.01	$64.8	-$5.7	52% 1456-1332 (2788)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 90¢	$45.28	$46.81	+$1.53	50% 4114-4061 (8175)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$57.4	$43.76	+$2.19	60% 2531-1695 (4226)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$16.29	$12.54	-$3.75	54% 1677-1430 (3107)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 77¢	$10.95	$10.38	-$0.57	48% 875-935 (1810)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 32.1¢	$9.81	$1.68	-$8.13	47% 1712-1954 (3666)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 47¢	$0.89	$1.38	+$0.49	48% 1242-1341 (2583)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$723.73

Value

$575.22

PnL

-$138.25

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$455

PnL

-$45

Record

—

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$455

PnL

-$45

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$120.38

Value

$101.55

PnL

-$18.83

Record

48%

661-703 (1364)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$83.51

Value

$89.4

PnL

+$5.89

Record

—

7-6 (13)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$105.01

Value

$64.8

PnL

-$5.7

Record

52%

1456-1332 (2788)

bosona<$100

Invested

$45.28

Value

$46.81

PnL

+$1.53

Record

50%

4114-4061 (8175)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$57.4

Value

$43.76

PnL

+$2.19

Record

60%

2531-1695 (4226)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.29

Value

$12.54

PnL

-$3.75

Record

54%

1677-1430 (3107)

almach<$100

Invested

$10.95

Value

$10.38

PnL

-$0.57

Record

48%

875-935 (1810)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.81

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$8.13

Record

47%

1712-1954 (3666)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.49

Record

48%

1242-1341 (2583)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Up 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.4%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.