Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (91%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4AM ET

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (45%) · Up at 9.0¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up9¢Down91¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$19.96

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 9¢

-80% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up9%

Down91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,157

Combined PnL-$5.28

Down6 traders

Total Value$653.67

Total Shares713

Combined PnL+$25.23

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2312-1782 (4094)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 82.9¢	$461.76	$467.3	+$5.53	51% 1618-1570 (3188)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Downavg 82.9¢	$129.2	$128.26	-$0.94	48% 277-297 (574)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.9¢	$102.2	$100.51	-$1.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 18¢	$27	$27.75	+$0.75
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 75.3¢	$106.4	$118.62	+$12.22	49% 568-600 (1168)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 48¢	$50.31	$29.11	+$1.8	48% 2055-2259 (4314)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 54.3¢	$13.45	$19.32	+$5.87	53% 1424-1248 (2672)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$82.99	$16.62	-$0.28	53% 1253-1113 (2366)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$11.9	$11.38	-$0.53	47% 98-109 (207)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 13.2¢	$14.76	$10.06	-$4.7	47% 1485-1661 (3146)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 71¢	$2.62	$2.71	+$0.09	60% 2182-1462 (3644)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 12¢	$1.2	$1.15	-$0.05	46% 727-841 (1568)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2312-1782 (4094)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$461.76

Value

$467.3

PnL

+$5.53

Record

51%

1618-1570 (3188)

Anon455ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$129.2

Value

$128.26

PnL

-$0.94

Record

48%

277-297 (574)

Both legs:

Down$102.282.9¢-$1.69

Up$2718¢+$0.75

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$106.4

Value

$118.62

PnL

+$12.22

Record

49%

568-600 (1168)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$50.31

Value

$29.11

PnL

+$1.8

Record

48%

2055-2259 (4314)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$13.45

Value

$19.32

PnL

+$5.87

Record

53%

1424-1248 (2672)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$82.99

Value

$16.62

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

1253-1113 (2366)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$0.53

Record

47%

98-109 (207)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$14.76

Value

$10.06

PnL

-$4.7

Record

47%

1485-1661 (3146)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$2.62

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$0.09

Record

60%

2182-1462 (3644)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

727-841 (1568)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.6%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$840.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

940.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.