Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3PM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (63%) · Up at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up86¢Down14¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$5.35

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 85.5¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up86%

Down14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$612.6

Total Shares683

Combined PnL-$1.21

Down3 traders

Total Value$18.56

Total Shares44

Combined PnL-$4.15

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$560	+$60	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$295	+$45
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$265	+$15
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$505.2	$493.92	-$4.43	56% 2444-1918 (4362)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$244.85	$288.92	+$44.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250.2	$205	-$48.8
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 77.8¢	$496.65	$392.25	-$97.11	50% 1950-1946 (3896)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$47.84	$91.49	+$93.69	— 5-5 (10)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 74.4¢	$102.58	$73.33	-$3.83	52% 1443-1311 (2754)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 68¢	$51.34	$53.79	+$5.74	60% 2502-1683 (4185)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$16.67	$13.03	-$3.64	54% 1661-1410 (3071)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$3	$3.18	+$0.18	47% 1391-1589 (2980)
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$3.04	$2.36	-$0.69	48% 656-701 (1357)
38 38791873984189<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$1.44	$1.75	+$0.31	48% 2298-2502 (4800)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$560

PnL

+$60

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$505.2

Value

$493.92

PnL

-$4.43

Record

56%

2444-1918 (4362)

Both legs:

Up$244.8550¢+$44.37

Down$250.250¢-$48.8

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$496.65

Value

$392.25

PnL

-$97.11

Record

50%

1950-1946 (3896)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$47.84

Value

$91.49

PnL

+$93.69

Record

—

5-5 (10)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$102.58

Value

$73.33

PnL

-$3.83

Record

52%

1443-1311 (2754)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$51.34

Value

$53.79

PnL

+$5.74

Record

60%

2502-1683 (4185)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.67

Value

$13.03

PnL

-$3.64

Record

54%

1661-1410 (3071)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

1391-1589 (2980)

peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.04

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$0.69

Record

48%

656-701 (1357)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.31

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.3%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.