Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (93%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 3AM ET

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 7.5¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up8¢Down92¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$0.6

Smart Money Entry

37.9¢ → 7.5¢

-80% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up8%

Down93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$532.68

Total Shares788

Combined PnL-$16.42

Down5 traders

Total Value$246.57

Total Shares291

Combined PnL+$15.82

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$506.4	$502.7	-$0.1	57% 2288-1755 (4043)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$256.4	$323.85	+$67.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$178.85	-$67.55
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 84.9¢	$93.99	$98.47	+$4.48	49% 563-593 (1156)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 80.6¢	$84.04	$92.76	+$8.72	49% 266-282 (548)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$28.63	$23.16	-$2.11	53% 1239-1097 (2336)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$15.53	$20.01	+$4.48	53% 1405-1239 (2644)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$20.56	$14.8	-$5.76	51% 1610-1559 (3169)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 11.8¢	$15.88	$14.79	-$1.09	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$11.91	$12.16	+$0.24	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 56¢	$12.11	$2.49	-$9.62	47% 98-109 (207)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$0.56	$0.61	+$0.06	46% 718-833 (1551)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$506.4

Value

$502.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

57%

2288-1755 (4043)

Both legs:

Down$256.450.3¢+$67.45

Up$24550¢-$67.55

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$93.99

Value

$98.47

PnL

+$4.48

Record

49%

563-593 (1156)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$84.04

Value

$92.76

PnL

+$8.72

Record

49%

266-282 (548)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$28.63

Value

$23.16

PnL

-$2.11

Record

53%

1239-1097 (2336)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$15.53

Value

$20.01

PnL

+$4.48

Record

53%

1405-1239 (2644)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$20.56

Value

$14.8

PnL

-$5.76

Record

51%

1610-1559 (3169)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$15.88

Value

$14.79

PnL

-$1.09

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$11.91

Value

$12.16

PnL

+$0.24

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$9.62

Record

47%

98-109 (207)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$0.56

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

718-833 (1551)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.0%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1005.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

1105.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.