Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (54%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2PM ET

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Up (33%) · Up at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up47¢Down53¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$47.56

Smart Money Entry

38.4¢ → 46.5¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Down 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up47%

Down54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$718.31

Total Shares771

Combined PnL+$42.81

Up3 traders

Total Value$544.39

Total Shares1,001

Combined PnL-$90.37

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.1¢	$505.6	$512.5	+$11.3	56% 2419-1897 (4316)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$505	+$5	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 64.4¢	$341.56	$448.65	+$107.09	50% 1923-1911 (3834)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.4¢	$290.81	$289.21	-$1.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.5¢	$50.75	$159.44	+$108.69
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 70.1¢	$82.92	$98.76	+$15.84	53% 1432-1294 (2726)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 27.4¢	$61.88	$84.51	+$22.63	49% 653-689 (1342)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.4¢	$36.64	$61.52	+$24.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$25.24	$22.99	-$2.25
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$22.38	$40.2	+$17.82	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 26.3¢	$122.88	$35.1	-$87.78	— 4-4 (8)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$58.42	$31.18	-$10.96	60% 2481-1663 (4144)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 51¢	$10.71	$18.48	+$7.77	47% 1374-1576 (2950)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$16.15	$17.19	+$1.04	54% 1637-1402 (3039)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$11.88	$4.29	-$7.59	49% 124-131 (255)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$505.6

Value

$512.5

PnL

+$11.3

Record

56%

2419-1897 (4316)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$505

PnL

+$5

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$341.56

Value

$448.65

PnL

+$107.09

Record

50%

1923-1911 (3834)

Both legs:

Down$290.8164.4¢-$1.6

Up$50.7511.5¢+$108.69

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$82.92

Value

$98.76

PnL

+$15.84

Record

53%

1432-1294 (2726)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$61.88

Value

$84.51

PnL

+$22.63

Record

49%

653-689 (1342)

Both legs:

Up$36.6427.4¢+$24.88

Down$25.2459.3¢-$2.25

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$22.38

Value

$40.2

PnL

+$17.82

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$122.88

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$87.78

Record

—

4-4 (8)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$58.42

Value

$31.18

PnL

-$10.96

Record

60%

2481-1663 (4144)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$10.71

Value

$18.48

PnL

+$7.77

Record

47%

1374-1576 (2950)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$16.15

Value

$17.19

PnL

+$1.04

Record

54%

1637-1402 (3039)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.88

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$7.59

Record

49%

124-131 (255)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Down 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.