Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1PM ET

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up11¢Down89¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$71.83

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 89.5¢

+61% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up11%

Down90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$787.81

Total Shares874

Combined PnL+$138.11

Up2 traders

Total Value$89.42

Total Shares219

Combined PnL-$66.29

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$523.52	$497.27	-$1.98	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$244.23	$310	+$57.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$250.8	$187.27	-$59.58
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 81.9¢	$104.79	$98.83	-$5.96	49% 640-663 (1303)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$70.86	$72.55	+$1.69	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 57.3¢	$143.74	$68.62	-$75.13	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 76.2¢	$189.69	$45.55	-$33.37	53% 1399-1261 (2660)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$41.44	$44.78	+$3.33	60% 2431-1634 (4065)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$11.96	$20.8	+$8.84	47% 107-120 (227)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 52¢	$11.44	$11	-$0.44	47% 1347-1530 (2877)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 42.8¢	$15.21	$10.1	-$0.45	54% 1603-1367 (2970)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Downavg 15.7¢	$42.65	$5	+$173.3	— 2-1 (3)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$523.52

Value

$497.27

PnL

-$1.98

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Down$244.2348.8¢+$57.6

Up$250.850.9¢-$59.58

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$104.79

Value

$98.83

PnL

-$5.96

Record

49%

640-663 (1303)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$70.86

Value

$72.55

PnL

+$1.69

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$143.74

Value

$68.62

PnL

-$75.13

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$189.69

Value

$45.55

PnL

-$33.37

Record

53%

1399-1261 (2660)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$41.44

Value

$44.78

PnL

+$3.33

Record

60%

2431-1634 (4065)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.96

Value

$20.8

PnL

+$8.84

Record

47%

107-120 (227)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$11.44

Value

$11

PnL

-$0.44

Record

47%

1347-1530 (2877)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$15.21

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.45

Record

54%

1603-1367 (2970)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Down

Invested

$42.65

Value

PnL

+$173.3

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.1%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.