Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (51%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1AM ET

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (29%) · Up at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up49¢Down51¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 29%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$38.17

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 49¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Down 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up49%

Down51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$540

Total Shares540

Combined PnL-$7.6

Down5 traders

Total Value$150.39

Total Shares247

Combined PnL+$45.77

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$520.33	$500.43	+$2.21	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$248.81	$338.75	+$88.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$249.17	$161.68	-$86.45
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 42.8¢	$248.8	$242.49	-$1.26	51% 1602-1552 (3154)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.8¢	$152.66	$165.73	+$13.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$91.85	$76.76	-$15.09
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$48.39	$54.07	+$5.69	48% 554-589 (1143)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 54¢	$30.79	$44.99	+$16.5	50% 3925-3931 (7856)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$24.29	$24.06	-$0.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 13¢	$5.85	$20.93	+$16.73
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 58.7¢	$112.6	$40	-$7.6	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 13¢	$9.31	$32.09	+$22.78	47% 700-792 (1492)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 34.1¢	$15.78	$26.64	+$10.85	60% 2106-1411 (3517)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 40.7¢	$17.84	$23.44	+$5.6	53% 1371-1214 (2585)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 47¢	$13.3	$14.15	+$0.85	47% 1845-2082 (3927)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$520.33

Value

$500.43

PnL

+$2.21

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

Both legs:

Down$248.8149.2¢+$88.66

Up$249.1750.9¢-$86.45

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$248.8

Value

$242.49

PnL

-$1.26

Record

51%

1602-1552 (3154)

Both legs:

Down$152.6642.8¢+$13.83

Up$91.8564¢-$15.09

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$48.39

Value

$54.07

PnL

+$5.69

Record

48%

554-589 (1143)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$30.79

Value

$44.99

PnL

+$16.5

Record

50%

3925-3931 (7856)

Both legs:

Up$24.2954¢-$0.22

Down$5.8513¢+$16.73

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$112.6

Value

$40

PnL

-$7.6

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$9.31

Value

$32.09

PnL

+$22.78

Record

47%

700-792 (1492)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$15.78

Value

$26.64

PnL

+$10.85

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$17.84

Value

$23.44

PnL

+$5.6

Record

53%

1371-1214 (2585)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$13.3

Value

$14.15

PnL

+$0.85

Record

47%

1845-2082 (3927)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Down 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.