Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 12PM ET

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (55%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$101.06

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 99.8¢

+43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,704

Combined PnL+$139.39

Down5 traders

Total Value$248.72

Total Shares893

Combined PnL-$38.33

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 77.8¢	$754.46	$851.4	+$96.94	50% 1859-1828 (3687)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.5¢	$520.25	$496.74	+$1.37	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$440	-$60	—
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$290	+$40
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$150	-$100
38 38791873984189CTR	Downavg 47.9¢	$230.49	$189.38	-$25.11	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 82.7¢	$171.67	$185.61	+$13.94	49% 640-663 (1303)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 72.4¢	$140.37	$118.83	+$16.17	53% 1399-1261 (2660)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$47	$42	-$5	50% 450-448 (898)
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 52¢	$12.09	$23.15	+$11.06	47% 107-120 (227)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 80¢	$11.5	$11.42	-$0.09	60% 2431-1634 (4065)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$10.71	$6.3	-$4.41	47% 1347-1530 (2877)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 3.1¢	$14.79	$5.69	+$1.34	— 2-1 (3)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 38.7¢	$10.5	$5.35	-$5.15	54% 1603-1367 (2970)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$754.46

Value

$851.4

PnL

+$96.94

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$520.25

Value

$496.74

PnL

+$1.37

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$440

PnL

-$60

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$230.49

Value

$189.38

PnL

-$25.11

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$171.67

Value

$185.61

PnL

+$13.94

Record

49%

640-663 (1303)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$140.37

Value

$118.83

PnL

+$16.17

Record

53%

1399-1261 (2660)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47

Value

$42

PnL

-$5

Record

50%

450-448 (898)

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$12.09

Value

$23.15

PnL

+$11.06

Record

47%

107-120 (227)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$0.09

Record

60%

2431-1634 (4065)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.71

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$4.41

Record

47%

1347-1530 (2877)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.79

Value

$5.69

PnL

+$1.34

Record

—

2-1 (3)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.5

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$5.15

Record

54%

1603-1367 (2970)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Up 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.