Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 12AM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$54.28

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 97.3¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$406.99

Total Shares434

Combined PnL+$51.93

Up2 traders

Total Value$7.5

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$2.35

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Down 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$375	+$125
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$125	-$125
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$502.44	$495.3	+$1.66	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$246.93	$369.55	+$125.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$249.51	$125.75	-$123.85
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 73.4¢	$244.76	$290.9	+$46.14	51% 1602-1552 (3154)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 72.4¢	$46.8	$48.51	+$1.7	48% 554-589 (1143)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 72.4¢	$101.16	$38.56	+$0.49	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$14.89	$18.25	+$3.36	53% 1371-1214 (2585)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$10.54	$10.78	+$0.24	60% 2106-1411 (3517)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 18¢	$4.5	$6.25	+$1.75	47% 236-262 (498)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$0.65	$1.25	+$0.6	48% 94-100 (194)

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$125

Up$25050¢-$125

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$502.44

Value

$495.3

PnL

+$1.66

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

Both legs:

Down$246.9350.1¢+$125.51

Up$249.5149.6¢-$123.85

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$244.76

Value

$290.9

PnL

+$46.14

Record

51%

1602-1552 (3154)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$46.8

Value

$48.51

PnL

+$1.7

Record

48%

554-589 (1143)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$101.16

Value

$38.56

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$14.89

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$3.36

Record

53%

1371-1214 (2585)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$10.54

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$0.24

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

47%

236-262 (498)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$0.65

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

94-100 (194)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Down 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.