Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 11AM ET

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (90%) · Down at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Up26¢Down74¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 90%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$207.4

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 74.5¢

+60% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 10 top traders (90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up26%

Down75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,909

Combined PnL+$206.3

Up1 trader

Total Value$12.92

Total Shares21

Combined PnL+$1.09

Down — 90%Up — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
QU QuantumPebble673	Downavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
38 38791873984189	Downavg 48.4¢	$228.52	$236.21	+$7.7	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 28.4¢	$133.05	$209.51	+$222.45	—
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$215.5	$166.36	-$48.61	49% 624-641 (1265)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.4¢	$85.93	$119.64	+$33.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.4¢	$128.72	$46.72	-$82.31
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 78.6¢	$248.91	$112.69	-$136.21	51% 1806-1756 (3562)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.7¢	$67.66	$74.63	+$6.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.6¢	$181.25	$38.06	-$143.19
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 76.5¢	$141.2	$38.4	-$22.93	53% 1367-1231 (2598)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$42.95	$27.55	-$3.19	60% 2389-1604 (3993)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 45.8¢	$17.32	$14.74	+$2.2	54% 1563-1340 (2903)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$11.82	$12.92	+$1.09	46% 104-120 (224)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 49¢	$12.55	$12.81	+$0.26	47% 1321-1484 (2805)
AN Anon455<$100	Downavg 21¢	$7.35	$7.18	-$0.17	49% 291-303 (594)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

QuantumPebble673

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$228.52

Value

$236.21

PnL

+$7.7

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$133.05

Value

$209.51

PnL

+$222.45

Record

—

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$215.5

Value

$166.36

PnL

-$48.61

Record

49%

624-641 (1265)

Both legs:

Down$85.9352.4¢+$33.7

Up$128.7274.4¢-$82.31

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$248.91

Value

$112.69

PnL

-$136.21

Record

51%

1806-1756 (3562)

Both legs:

Down$67.6675.7¢+$6.97

Up$181.2578.6¢-$143.19

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$141.2

Value

$38.4

PnL

-$22.93

Record

53%

1367-1231 (2598)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$42.95

Value

$27.55

PnL

-$3.19

Record

60%

2389-1604 (3993)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$17.32

Value

$14.74

PnL

+$2.2

Record

54%

1563-1340 (2903)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.82

Value

$12.92

PnL

+$1.09

Record

46%

104-120 (224)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$12.55

Value

$12.81

PnL

+$0.26

Record

47%

1321-1484 (2805)

Anon455<$100

Down

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.18

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

291-303 (594)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 10 top traders (90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.8%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.